A Reader’s Manual
Trust, but verify.
This isn’t a tip sheet; it’s a body of research. Below is how I work, written down so you know what you are reading, not as a set of promises.
- The method, not the verdict. I write up how a thing was tested and what the data showed.
- No signals, no tips, no “buy this.” Any stock named is only there to illustrate a method, not as a recommendation.
- I take no broker money. No commissions, no affiliate links, no paid placements.
- I look for the holes in my own work. A backtest can easily fool the person who built it, so I check the usual places it goes wrong and say where I haven’t checked.
- When it might be luck, I say so. A single decade is just one path the market happened to walk. If an edge sits within statistical noise, I say so, even when the number flatters me.
- Straight about real money vs. simulation. If a study has only been run as a simulation, with no real capital in it, I say exactly that. If I can’t show the fills, I won’t claim the number.
- Honest limits, stated up front. I say what each study leaves out — costs or dividends, for instance.
- You weigh it; you decide. Don’t take my word for something just because I said it. The responsibility for any decision stays yours.
- I write slowly. I post when a piece feels solid enough, so posts are infrequent and not on a fixed schedule.
- Free to read. The research and every post are free. A newsletter, a coffee, or an unobtrusive ad keeps it going.